Hurricane Ida Makes Landfall at 930 mb.

Satellite image of Hurricane Ida on August 29, 2021

In August 29, 2005, over 1,800 people perished from Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in Louisiana; stunning the nation with unbelievable aftermath images of flooding and destruction.

On the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina (today), high-end category 4 Hurricane Ida just slammed into Louisiana, once again close to New Orleans. Over the coming hours and days, we will learn the extent of what will likely be much catastrophic damage.

It was just three days ago I began seeing lower pressure models, so knew the potential was there for a catastrophic hurricane. I write a lot about hurricanes each year, so here’s some additional insights on power and pressure of these storms.

At 919 mb, Hurricane Michael (2018) was a slightly stronger storm than Hurricane Katrina (2005), but Katrina is the modern benchmark for the near worst case scenario of a landfalling hurricane in America.

Hurricane Ida made landfall in Lousiana at a pressure of 930 mb. Katrina made landfall at 920 mb.

Months after Hurricane Michael devastated parts of the Florida panhandle coast, I drove from Panama City to Mexico Beach, FL, and saw a good 30 mile stretch of Category 4/5 devastation. Learned a lot about the distribution of power from a 919 mb hurricane that day.

930 mb is a very bad store. But it isn’t a Katrina.

National Hurricane Center 5PM Cone

Here’s the 5PM cone from NHC. NYC and New England in the crosshairs, for now.

If there is going to be a hurricane strike, likely end of weekend, or into next week. H = Hurricane, and S = Tropical Storm.

This is a tough forecast, and as usual, storm could go out to sea, or slam into Long Island or elsewhere. Intensity is unknown, but intensification is expected.

Not expected to be a Sandy 2.0, but it could have a curve like Sandy.

Because there are some lower pressure models floating around, can’t rule out a major hurricane.

Model: National Hurricane Center

Peak of Hurricane Season Brings Us a Potential Major Storm

This is the time of year when hurricane season begins to peak, and models are showing potential activity into the Northeast, Long Island, or New England.

Early on, seeing some Sandy (2012) track similarities, and some lower pressure models out there (lower the pressure, stronger the storm).

Not a forecast, and still room for the storm to head out to sea.

Model: HWRF

Texas is Freezing. Renewable Energy Planning Appears to be a Big Part of the Problem

Some of us knew an extreme storm was going to hit Texas and surrounding states hard for days now. At the peak, five million were without power, and brutal cold (and snow) are hovering over the state, much of the region, and this is just day two of what will likely be a five day extreme weather event, with another big storm impacting Texas beginning tomorrow.

We are beginning to learn why Texans have seen such a dramatic loss of energy during part one of this storm, which is directly impacted by both the failure of renewable energy, and to be fair as Texas Govenor Abbott notes, “The ability of some companies that generate the power has been frozen. This includes the natural gas & coal generators.”

Word of the street is:

MichaelPalmerTWC: What’s happening in Texas is entirely predictable. A direct result of over investment in unreliable energy like wind and solar, and then not expanding reliable energy sources like natural gas and nuclear to meet an ever growing demand for that energy.

As I sit here with my kids freezing, I really don’t give a crap about your attempts to save face for the renewable energy sector. I lived in many places in the US including cold states and never have had to experience this. We lost power and heat when it was needed the most.— GalvestonChaser (@davis_wx) February 16, 2021

With the Biden Administration’s drive to tackle Climate Change, now is the time to have a national debate.

I would support the transition to a ‘balanced’ hydrogen economy by 2070. Wind and solar are fine on a small scale, but a sophisticated empire can’t rely on unreliable sources of energy. It takes a good 40 to 50 years to transition to a clean energy economy.

Possible, a once in a century weather event.

There’s a Storm Coming…

If this model holds up, be Hurricane Sandy like winds tomorrow into New Jersey. Won’t be the low pressure of Sandy, but it could feel intense.

Sandy made landfall at 946mb, not far from Atlantic City in 2012. It was a hybrid pressure storm. Those 80-90mph winds in Sandy came loaded with category 4 hurricane energy, where as (if the model holds), those 80mph to 90mph winds tomorrow could be intense, but not nearly as destructive.

Our storm is intensifying tonight. Whatever the endgame now, this could pack a nasty punch for some. Might be a good idea to batten down the hatches, and prepare for a wild ride.

20200803_215015
Model: ECMWF