Quick Thoughts on Red and Blue States

Final House of Representatives map from 2020 Election. Credit: Real Clear Politics

No secret to anyone the United States is deeply divided. Politics is everywhere, including in big business. Can see this clearly on how big corporations are evolving their corporate goals, and especially on Linkedin, where political messaging is hammered away every single day in company post updates.

We live in a political world. How can this business minded writer not write about politics?

I subscribe to red and blue state thinking. Blue states (and cities) are more liberal, and Red states (and cities) are more Conservative.

Full disclosure, this writer leans to the red, but does hold a few blue state political positions.

Readers may disagree with this writer on important political topics of the day, but just know I write from a place where the American Heartland meets the political center of America, and contrary to what anyone may argue, many of my points of view reflect two hundred years of American normal.

See all that red on the map? Politically, that’s foundational for the DNA of American Tradition.

On Biden’s Speech to Congress

Photo Credit: Getty

Last night President Joe Biden delivered his first speech to Congress saying “America is on the move again’, while noting the nation is at an ‘inflection point’ too.

The moment calls for more spending the President argues.

Massive spending actually.

In the amount of another proposed $2.25 trillion in infrastructure spending, and another $1.8 trillion in a family safety net, and that’s in addition to the recent $1.9 trillion stimulus.

Republicans quickly jumped to attack Biden’s ambition plans of driving up America’s debt by $6 trillion.

This blog comes at policy from a fiscally conservative, business minded standpoint. The notion that America needs to spend trillions on unnecessary big government programs and drive up our national debt to compete in the 21st Century, while China is trapped in 300% debt to GDP ratio is to be nice, at best impractical.

Saddling down future generations with high debt interest payments will make USA unflexible, stagnant, and bloated.

While I’m not opposed to government spending on legit infrastructure to rebuild roads, airports, bridges to best compete in the 21st Century, I’d want to make sure we only spend what we need out of that projected $300 to $600 billion that actually makes sense. If we can do infrastructure for $200 billion, even better.

Most of what President Biden proposed last night will be DOA in the Senate.

Politicians should stop overpromising what they can’t deliver, and focus on what taxpayers (We The People) want to spend taxpayer $$$ on to improve the nation.

Into the Final Stretch of the 2020 election, a Super Close Race

Forget the ridiculous national polls that have no correlation with reality. Those are called ‘suppression polls’ and designed to drive a narrative Trump is losing big, but he isn’t.

The election comes down to a handful of swing states. The 2020 election is super close, both Presidential campaigns know it, and mainstream media pollsters know it too. If it was really a +16 race, Biden wouldn’t be so focused on Pennsylvania or Florida.

Each Presidential campaign has internal polls likely more accurate than these +12 to +16 national polls which are a joke. The election is about state polls now, and the most accurate polls from past election cycles shows Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and within striking distance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Best polling shows Trump has a slight electoral college lead 3 weeks out, and while this map shows Arizona as a tossup, strong Arizona poll for Trump the other day with +4 (Trafalagar Poll). Michigan tilting Trump, and Pennsylvania tilting Biden.

Best thinking today is the race comes down to Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Who is Winning in the Race to be President

In the race for the Presidency, national polls don’t amount to much, because in the end, a handful of battlefield states will determine who wins the race.

At this time, polling aggregates have the race about 7-9 point national lead for Joe Biden, but state polling is telling a much different story.

The reason the prediction markets have a near 50/50 odds, is because states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are close, that is if you rely on polling with a historically good track record. And Minnesota could be a near tie.

The polls were wrong in 2014, and 2016 elections, In October 2016, Real Clear Politics had Hillary Clinton up 7 points, and then Donald Trump won the election a few weeks later.

it appears Joe Biden is winning, but if you look at historically accurate polling in states where the election most matters, Donald Trump may have an electoral advantage.

Race for the President in 2020 – Nevada Caucus Edition

Bernie Sanders has won Nevada and is the clear Democrat front-runner and delegate leader.

At this time, Bernie Sanders is the odds on favorite to win most Super Tuesday contests except Alabama & Mississippi (Biden), Minnesota (Klobuchar) and Florida (Bloomberg).

Joe Biden will be a distant #2 today, which means he’s still in the game, but distant #2 after terrible Iowa and NH showing is not a strong position.

Spin aside, Bernie Sanders leads, Joe Biden trails, Warren damaged Mike Bloomberg at the debate, but can Bloomberg make a comeback?

That’s the story coming out of Nevada.

Obamacare Unconstitutional? A Nightmare for Republicans

The world has changed some.

Republicans didn’t lose the House last month to gun control, climate change, or immigration. They got wiped out in the suburbs, and elsewhere by Health care.

2018 Midterms was about Health care. Period.

If last night’s ruling holds, Republicans can weaken themselves electorally in suburbs, and swing states, thereby putting the Republican Presidency at risk in 2020, and losing odds to win back the House.

This isn’t 2010. Health care is now a political winner, and pre-existing conditions are the new Holy Grail of Health Care.

Next time Dems are in power, they’ll push for Medicare-for-all, which would be a disaster.

We’ll see how the coming months go, but at this point, if the Obamacare ruling holds, I’m thinking Congress gives Trump his wall, in exchange for protecting pre-existing conditions.

RT nicholaskitchel: This is the photo taken at the White House right after HouseGOP voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act last year.

Everyone with an ❌ has since been voted out of Congress.

Health Care

Legal Analysis

On Friday’s memorandum from the Feds:

– President Trump has NOT been implicated in a crime. There is no evidence here to support an allegation.

– The President cannot be charged in office.

– Tough for prosecutors to prove illegal campaign finance violations by Trump, even if legit evidence ever emerged. In addition, Michael Cohen has a major credibility problem.

– POTUS could pardon himself.

– Partisans are holding President Trump up to a legal standard that the Obama Campaign violated, much worse, and then settled with a fine; for a total bigger than Cohen’s total case.

– Impeachment is not a legal proceeding. It is political. If the House of Representatives wants to impeach the President during a major election cycle term, have at it. Without evidence, the votes in the Senate to convict are just not there.